Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.
- Check out our free detailed NRFI Cheat Sheets
- Results from All Teams from the last 14 Games Played
- Team NRFI-YRFI Split Records
🎯Our model picks for the day:
⚾ Royals vs. Padres – NRFI Model Pick❌
We’re locking in a full game NRFI for this interleague matchup between the Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres, and here’s why this game stands out as one of the strongest NRFI setups of the day:
🧱 Pitching Edge on Both Sides
Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for the Royals, and he’s been quietly one of the more reliable 1st-inning arms this season. He holds an 86% NRFI record overall, and a sparkling 89% NRFI mark on the road. He’s allowing less than one baserunner per inning in the 1st (1.33 ERA, 0% HR rate), and his recent form (1.84 ERA over last 5 starts) only strengthens the case.
Opposite him is Nick Pivetta, who’s thriving in his own right. He owns a 79% NRFI record, with an 86% clip at home, backed by a 1.11 1st-inning ERA. He’s keeping hitters off balance and has yet to surrender a 1st-inning homer.
📊 Combined, these starters are 23-5 in NRFI situations this season — elite.
🏟️ Ballpark & Game Environment
- Petco Park has historically played pitcher-friendly, and this year’s YRFI rate is just 49% — below league average.
- No weather issues tonight, with temps in the upper 60s and wind blowing across, not out.
- It’s also a night game, where NRFI outcomes have historically hit at a higher rate.
📈 Model Summary
| Factor | Rating |
|---|---|
| Pitcher NRFI Strength | ✅ Elite |
| Team NRFI Trends | ✅ Strong |
| Top of Lineup Risk | ✅ Low |
| Ballpark Environment | ✅ Favorable |
| Weather/Time of Game | ✅ Ideal |
🔒 Final Word
This Royals–Padres matchup checks every major NRFI box in our model — elite 1st-inning arms, quiet bats at the top, and an ideal ballpark and weather setup. Whether you’re playing it straight or using it in a 2-leg parlay, this Full Game NRFI deserves to be in your daily card.
🧠 Model Pick: NRFI – Royals vs. Padres❌
🎰Below is the Bet we placed for the NRFI:
We lost bet we placed yesterday:
📊Game dashboard from our model:
(click to enlarge)
Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.
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