Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.
- Check out our free detailed NRFI Cheat Sheets
- Results from All Teams from the last 14 Games Played
- Team NRFI-YRFI Split Records
🎯Our model picks for the day:
- Royals/Padres Game NRFI✅
- Diamondbacks/Rockies Game YRFI❌
🎯 Optional Sunday Parlay (+209 | 2-Leg)❌
🟢 NRFI: Royals @ Padres (4:10 PM ET)
🔒 Confidence Pick
- ⚾ Seth Lugo (KC): 13 starts, 2.08 ERA in the 1st inning, 11-2 NRFI on season
- ⚾Randy Vásquez (SD): Quietly holding an 86% NRFI rate at home
- 🚫 Both teams have hit NRFI in 10 of last 14 Games
- 🧊 Cool weather (68°F), low wind impact, neutral ballpark
🔕 Model Edge: Great pitcher matchup, below-average 1st-inning bats = solid NRFI play
🔥 YRFI: Diamondbacks @ Rockies (3:10 PM ET)
💣 High-Risk, High-Reward
- 💥 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 10.29 1st-inning ERA 😬
- 🧨 Pfaadt (ARI): Decent numbers but facing a hot top-5 1st inning lineup in Colorado
- 🌡️ Game-time temp: 90°F with thin air at Coors Field
- 🏟️ Ballpark YRFI: 61%, HRs fly early here
📈 Model Lean: Enough firepower and a weak starter = prime for early fireworks
💰 Final Thought:
⚠️ This combo balances a sharp NRFI with a volatile YRFI that’s backed by park/weather/hitter factors. At +209, it’s a calculated risk worth taking.
🎰Below is the bet we placed:
Picks went 1-1
📊Game dashboard from our model:
(click to enlarge)
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Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.
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