Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.
- Check out our free detailed NRFI Cheat Sheets
- Results from All Teams from the last 14 Games Played
- Team NRFI-YRFI Split Records
🎯Our model picks for the day:
- Pirates Team NRFI❌
- Mariners/Twins Game YRFI ❌
- Nationals/Padres Game YRFI❌
⚾ Game 1: Pirates @ Brewers (NRFI Pick – PIT Team Only)
🟡 Pirates NRFI -350 (highly juiced, best used as a parlay anchor)
🟢 Pirates NRFI Streak: 6 straight | Season NRFI %: 73%
🔒 Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft – solid WHIP (1.09) and a good 1st inning track record
🔍 Opposing Team NRFI % vs RHP: Brewers at 78%
📈 Pairing Tip: Combine Pirates NRFI (-350) with Brewers ML (-200) for a parlay that settles closer to -135. Great strategy to reduce juice on the Brewers straight-up.
💥 Game 2: Mariners @ Twins (YRFI Pick)
🔴 Both pitchers show vulnerability:
- Bryan Woo (SEA): 57% NRFI season, 1st inning ERA: 5.79
- Bailey Ober (MIN): 60% NRFI, but 1st inning ERA of 4.22
🔥 Top of the Lineups Loaded: - Mariners: Julio (.276, 9% HR), Polanco (.290, 6% HR), Arozarena (.236, 10%)
- Twins: Larnach (.285), Wallner (.257, 8% HR)
🎯 Ballpark YRFI %: 57%
✅ Model Pick: YRFI
💣 Game 3: Nationals @ Padres (YRFI Lean)
🚩 Pitcher Risks:
- Mitchell Parker (WSH): 1st inning ERA of 5.29, only 53% NRFI
- Stephen Kolek (SD): ERA 3.59 overall but 7.00 in the 1st inning
⚠️ Nationals Batting: HR threats with Hassell, Ruiz, and CJ Abrams
⚠️ Padres: Tatis (.268, 9% HR), Machado (.284), Sheets (.267) – excellent early power
🏟️ Petco Park: 47% YRFI rate but HRs have been creeping up (10 1st-inning HRs)
🧠 Model Indicator: YRFI Lean – riskier but justified
🎰Below is our tracker bet placed:
Picks went 0-3:
📊Game dashboard from our model:
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Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.
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