Picks for June 25, 2025

Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.

🎯Our model picks for the day:

Rays/Royals Game NRFI✅

🔥Breakdown:

⚾ Rays @ Royals – Game NRFI (-110)
Pick: Under 0.5 1st Inning Total

🧠 Final Word
Two elite NRFI arms, both teams in strong no-score streaks, and above-average NRFI metrics across the board = prime standalone play.

🔒 Both pitchers are NRFI machines

Drew Rasmussen: 12–3 NRFI record, 75% success rate

Michael Wacha: 15–0 NRFI record, 100% perfection

🧱 Two red-hot team streaks

Rays: 12 of last 15 games NRFI

Royals: 13 of last 15 games NRFI

📉 Batting stats align with NRFI

Both teams hit worse vs opposite-hand pitchers (.229 and .253 in splits)

Royals bottom-tier slugging (.287 at night), Rays just .393 vs RHP

💨 Weather Impact

Hot air with wind blowing out could slightly aid offense, but both starters’ control + low HR rates offset the risk.

🧠 Facing a light-hitting top of the lineup with limited 1st-inning power.
🧱 Opposing pitcher has a strong WHIP and reliable 1st-inning control.
🔒 Astros are on a favorable NRFI streak — a trusted team-side play.

🎰Below is bet placed:

We won the bet:

📊Game dashboard from our model:

Rays/Royals Game NRFI
(click to enlarge)

Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.

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