Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.
- Check out our free detailed NRFI Cheat Sheets
- Results from All Teams from the last 14 Games Played
- Team NRFI-YRFI Split Records
🎯Our model picks for the day:
- Rays/Royals Game NRFI✅
- Phillies/Astros Game NRFI✅
- Marlins Team NRFI❌
🔥Breakdown:
⚾️ Rays vs Royals — Full Game NRFI
- 🧱 Both pitchers (Baz & Lorenzen) bring strong 1st inning resumes — Baz is 14-1 (93%) on NRFIs, Lorenzen is 13-2 (87%).
- 📉 Royals offense ranks bottom-tier in 1st inning production at home (27% scoring rate).
- 💥 Kauffman Stadium has just a 28% ballpark YRFI rate, keeping HR threats low.
- 🔥 Rays are on an 11 NRFI streak and the Royals have 4 straight NRFIs — both teams trending strong.
⚾️ Phillies vs Astros — Full Game NRFI
- 🧠 Both starters, Cristopher Sanchez (6 straight NRFIs) and Hunter Brown (5 straight NRFIs), have elite 1st inning WHIPs and low walk rates.
- 🧱 The Astros have a 79% home NRFI rate, while the Phillies come in with a 75% away NRFI rate.
- 🏟️ Game is played in a dome (no weather risk), and Daikin Park YRFI is just 43%.
- 💥 Top of the lineups have limited HR% risk across the board. Both sides profile well for a slow start.
⚾️ Marlins Team NRFI (Paired with PHI/HOU due to juice)
- 🧱 Giants starter Hayden Birdsong is 6-0 on NRFIs and allows few 1st inning hits (avg 0.3).
- 📉 The Giants’ top-6 hitters have below-average SLG and HR% — limited early damage potential.
- 🧠 The Marlins are on a 9-game NRFI streak, and have scored in the 1st just once in their last 14 games.
- ⚡ Ballpark YRFI is just 49%, and wind isn’t a factor in San Francisco this afternoon.
🎰Below is our tracker bet placed:
Picks went 2-1:
📊Game dashboards from our model:
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Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.
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