Picks for July 1, 2025

Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.

🎯Our model picks for the day:

Cardinals/Pirates Game NRFI✅
Mariners Team NRFI✅

🔥Breakdown:

⚾ Mariners Team NRFI✅

🧠 Emerson Hancock gets the nod for Seattle, holding a 67% NRFI rate at home and a 3-game NRFI streak. Royals’ lineup is bottom-tier vs RHP (.245 AVG / .297 OBP) and has a 64% NRFI rate over the last 14 games.

📉 Kansas City ranks 20th in 1st inning runs (0.46/game) and is just 4-6 on NRFI in last 10 games. Their top 4 hitters have combined for only 2 first-inning HRs in the past 2 weeks.

💥 Hancock has allowed just 1 HR in 16 first innings, and Seattle’s home park (T-Mobile) has a 38% YRFI rate, favoring NRFI bets.

🟢 Verdict: With the Royals struggling early and Hancock showing control, Seattle is a strong NRFI candidate.

⚾ Cardinals/Pirates Game NRFI ✅

🧠 Paul Skenes is elite with a 100% NRFI rate this season (17-0) and a 0.71 ERA in the 1st inning. St. Louis has a 71% NRFI rate on the road and has only scored in 1 of their last 5 first innings.

📉 Cardinals have a .240 AVG and .301 OBP in the 1st, with a 10/14 NRFI run recently. Only 1 HR from the top 5 hitters in their last 6 games.

💥 PNC Park skews slightly to NRFI (44% YRFI rate), and the forecast includes a 36% chance of rain with wind blowing in, which could further dampen early scoring.

🟢 Verdict: With Skenes on the mound and STL’s top order cold, Pirates are a high-confidence NRFI side.

💡 Betting Strategy Insight:

The Pirates vs Cardinals NRFI is heavily juiced due to Paul Skenes’ elite 1st-inning dominance (17-0 NRFI record), making it difficult to play solo at value.

By pairing it with the Mariners NRFI leg, where the matchup and splits also strongly favor no early runs, you create a plus-money parlay (+121) without sacrificing edge — combining two high-probability outcomes into a smarter, value-driven play.

🧠 Targeting premium NRFI spots with heavy juice and anchoring them to a second strong NRFI leg is a great way to beat the line and maximize upside.

🎰Below is The bet placed to track our picks:

Model Picks 2-0

📊Game dashboards from our model:

Cardinals/Pirates Game NRFI
(click to enlarge)

Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.

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