Picks for July 2, 2025

Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.

🎯Our model picks for the day:

Cardinals/Pirates Game NRFI✅
White Sox/Dodgers Game YRFI✅

🔥Breakdown:

⚾ Cardinals vs Pirates NRFI✅

🧠 Pitching edge both sides:

Sonny Gray (STL) has a 75% season NRFI rate, with a 5-game streak, and has allowed just 1 HR in 16 first innings.
Mitch Keller (PIT) counters with a 92% NRFI at home and 82% season rate. He’s given up just 1 first-inning HR in 17 starts.

📉 Cold-start offenses:

The Cardinals have just a 0.37 first-inning run avg on the road and a 71% away NRFI rate.
Pirates rank 27th in 1st inning runs per game and have hit 0 first-inning HRs in last 10 games.

🌡️ Game Context:
Day game at PNC Park, where NRFI hits 56% of the time. Winds are neutral, weather is ideal.

🟢 Verdict:
With two NRFI-trending starters and sluggish top-of-lineup performance from both teams, this is a prime NRFI opportunity.

⚾ White Sox vs Dodgers YRFI✅

🧠 Mismatch and elite offense alert:

Clayton Kershaw is just returning from injury and has allowed runs in 50% of 1st innings this season.
Brandon Eisert (CHW) is a bullpen fill-in with only 2 starts, giving up runs in 50% of his 1st innings, and facing the #1 first-inning scoring team in MLB.

💣 Dodgers Danger Zone:

Dodgers have scored in the 1st in 5 of their last 6 games, and 82% NRFI vs LHP, meaning they crush early against lefties.
Their first five hitters (Ohtani, Betts, Smith, Teoscar, Pages) have a combined .861 OPS and 30% HR rate vs LHP.

⚠️ White Sox Risk Factor:

They’ve allowed 1st inning runs in 7 of their last 10 games, and rank bottom 5 in opponent NRFI % (45% away NRFI).
Eisert allows avg. of 1.0 hits and 1.3 base runners per 1st inning, and faces Betts/Ohtani immediately.

🟠 Ballpark & Game Notes:
Dodger Stadium plays 64% YRFI at night, with warm weather and 11 MPH wind blowing out.

🔴 Verdict:
Massive YRFI upside with Dodgers’ stacked top order vs a weak opener in Eisert. A strong YRFI target, especially on Dodgers side.

🎰Below is the bet placed to track our picks:

Model Picks went 2-0

📊Game dashboards from our model:

Cardinals/Pirates Game NRFI
(click to enlarge)

White Sox/Dodgers Game YRFI
(click to enlarge)

Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.

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