Our model takes a conservative approach when generating NRFI recommendations, considering factors like team NRFI history, pitcher performance, team batting stats, ballpark conditions, weather, and player/team streaks. Focusing on single-team NRFIs, rather than the entire game, can improve your chances by targeting specific team tendencies in the first inning. (Tip: Always check current weather conditions, as they can significantly affect ball travel in certain MLB ballparks.) Single-team NRFIs are often best used in parlays due to the heavy juice placed by sportsbooks. However, we also recommend full-game NRFIs when our model identifies a strong opportunity across both teams.
(Always confirm pitching lineup before placing bet as the model is calculating the starting pitcher into the final recommendation)
- Check out our free detailed NRFI Cheat Sheets
- Results from All Teams from the last 14 Games Played
- Team NRFI-YRFI Split Records
🎯Our model pick for the day:
- Tigers/Mariners NRFI ✅
⚾ Tigers @ Mariners – Game NRFI
🏆 Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – One of MLB’s premier NRFI arms, posting an 88% NRFI rate on the season and 4 straight NRFI coming into tonight. He’s elite both home and away (12–0 in day starts, 15–2 on the road) and keeps hitters off balance with a 30% strikeout rate and only a 0.9 WHIP.
🏆 George Kirby (Mariners) – Exceptionally consistent with an 83% NRFI mark on the year and 5 straight NRFI. At home, he’s even stronger (92% NRFI), driven by elite control (3.3% walk rate) and soft contact metrics (0.8 HR/9).
📊 Team Trends –
• Tigers: 75% NRFI overall, 78% at night.
• Mariners: 71% NRFI overall, 74% at home.
Both clubs have been strong in avoiding early scoring—Tigers rank top-5 in NRFI % since September.
⚔ Splits – Detroit holds a 74% NRFI vs RHP; Seattle shows 72% NRFI vs LHP, perfectly aligning with the starters’ handedness matchups.
🏟 Ballpark/Weather – T-Mobile Park continues to be one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly first-inning environments (YRFI only 40%). The roof will be closed, eliminating weather volatility.
🔥 Edge – Two elite NRFI pitchers on extended streaks, backed by disciplined lineups and a controlled dome setting. All signs point to a strong Game NRFI play.
Draft Kings as NRFI\YRFI pick boost today which was used to get odds to -143:
Here is our Tracker Bet:
Winning bet slip:
Single Team NRFI bets are available on Fanatics Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbooks, and MyBookie.
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