Through the first two months of the MLB season, the first inning has been almost perfectly split between NRFI and YRFI results over the last two years.
Looking at games played through May 31, the data shows just how close the first-inning market has been:
| Year | NRFI | YRFI | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 440 | 429 | 869 |
| 2026 | 438 | 449 | 887 |
In 2025, NRFI held a slight edge with 440 NRFIs compared to 429 YRFIs, giving NRFI a narrow advantage through May 31.
In 2026, the script has flipped slightly. Through May 31, there have been 449 YRFIs compared to 438 NRFIs, meaning first-inning scoring has been a little more common this season compared to the same point last year.
The difference is not massive, but it is worth noting. Through May 31:
2025: NRFI hit at 50.6%
2026: YRFI hit at 50.6%
That is about as close to a true coin flip as it gets.
What This Means
This type of year-over-year comparison is a good reminder that NRFI and YRFI betting should not be approached as a blanket strategy. The overall market can look balanced, but individual matchups still create edges.
The key is breaking each game down by the factors that matter most:
Starting pitcher first-inning performance, team first-inning scoring trends, lineup strength, ballpark run environment, game time conditions, and recent team form.
While the overall numbers show a nearly even split, the edge comes from identifying the specific games where the setup leans heavily toward one side.
Final Takeaway
Through May 31, both the 2025 and 2026 MLB seasons show that first-inning outcomes remain extremely tight overall.
In 2025, NRFI had the slight early edge.
In 2026, YRFI has taken a small lead.
The margin is thin, but the trend is worth tracking as the season moves into the summer months.
For NRFI and YRFI bettors, this reinforces one key point: the market is competitive, and the best opportunities come from matchup-specific analysis, not simply betting one side blindly.
Can you also add in specific team trends or things that stand out
I’ll pull team-level splits from both files through May 31, looking for the biggest NRFI/YRFI standouts and year-over-year changes that can strengthen the blog post.
One key thing that stands out: the Rangers made the biggest shift toward YRFI games, moving from 24 YRFI games in 2025 to 40 in 2026 through May 31.
I’ll pull team-level splits from both files through May 31, looking for the biggest NRFI/YRFI standouts and year-over-year changes that can strengthen the blog post.
One key thing that stands out: the Rangers made the biggest shift toward YRFI games, moving from 24 YRFI games in 2025 to 40 in 2026 through May 31.
focus more on this yearThought for 1m 24s
Absolutely — here’s an updated blog post version that focuses more on 2026 team trends and what stands out through May 31.
MLB First-Inning Results Through May 31: 2026 YRFI Has a Slight Edge
Through May 31, 2026, MLB first-inning results have been extremely balanced overall, but YRFI has taken a slight lead compared to the same point last season.
Through May 31:
| Year | NRFI | YRFI | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 440 | 429 | 869 |
| 2026 | 438 | 449 | 887 |
In 2025, NRFI had a small edge through the end of May.
In 2026, that has flipped. Through May 31, there have been 449 YRFIs compared to 438 NRFIs, giving YRFI a narrow 50.6% hit rate overall.
The difference is small, but when you dig into the 2026 team trends, there are some clear standouts.
2026 Has Shifted More Toward YRFI in May
The early part of the season started more NRFI-friendly, but May pushed the overall 2026 numbers toward YRFI.
By month in 2026:
| Month | NRFI | YRFI |
|---|---|---|
| March | 45 | 31 |
| April | 195 | 197 |
| May | 198 | 221 |
March leaned heavily toward NRFI, April was almost dead even, and May was clearly more YRFI-friendly.
That May shift is a big reason why YRFI now has the overall edge through May 31.
Biggest 2026 YRFI Team Trends
The Rangers are the biggest team trend that stands out.
Games involving Texas have gone:
Rangers games: 40 YRFI, 19 NRFI
YRFI rate: 67.8%
That is the highest YRFI rate of any team through May 31. They were even hotter in May, going 21 YRFI and 7 NRFI, a 75.0% YRFI rate for the month.
They also finished May on a 7-game YRFI streak and hit YRFI in 9 of their last 10 games.
The Rockies are another major YRFI team trend.
Rockies games: 37 YRFI, 23 NRFI
YRFI rate: 61.7%
The home split is the biggest part of the Colorado trend. Rockies home games were 21 YRFI and 7 NRFI, also a 75.0% YRFI rate at home through May 31.
The Astros also stand out strongly.
Astros games: 37 YRFI, 24 NRFI
YRFI rate: 60.7%
Houston also had the longest YRFI run of any team in the data, with a 10-game YRFI streak at one point this season.
Other teams leaning YRFI through May 31 include:
| Team | YRFI | NRFI | YRFI Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 40 | 19 | 67.8% |
| Rockies | 37 | 23 | 61.7% |
| Astros | 37 | 24 | 60.7% |
| Mariners | 34 | 26 | 56.7% |
| Athletics | 33 | 26 | 55.9% |
| Yankees | 33 | 26 | 55.9% |
| White Sox | 33 | 26 | 55.9% |
Strongest 2026 NRFI Team Trends
While YRFI has the slight overall edge, there are still several teams whose games have leaned strongly toward NRFI.
The Padres have been the strongest NRFI team trend through May 31.
Padres games: 37 NRFI, 21 YRFI
NRFI rate: 63.8%
The Cubs are right behind them.
Cubs games: 37 NRFI, 23 YRFI
NRFI rate: 61.7%
The Orioles also stand out as a strong NRFI trend.
Orioles games: 36 NRFI, 24 YRFI
NRFI rate: 60.0%
Top NRFI-leaning teams through May 31:
| Team | NRFI | YRFI | NRFI Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 37 | 21 | 63.8% |
| Cubs | 37 | 23 | 61.7% |
| Orioles | 36 | 24 | 60.0% |
| Guardians | 35 | 26 | 57.4% |
| Tigers | 34 | 26 | 56.7% |
| Giants | 33 | 26 | 55.9% |
Home and Away Trends That Stand Out
A few home/away splits are worth noting.
The Rockies at home have been one of the strongest YRFI spots in the league:
Rockies home games: 21 YRFI, 7 NRFI
YRFI rate: 75.0%
The Mariners at home have also been very YRFI-friendly:
Mariners home games: 21 YRFI, 11 NRFI
YRFI rate: 65.6%
The Yankees at home were close behind:
Yankees home games: 17 YRFI, 9 NRFI
YRFI rate: 65.4%
On the road, the Rangers were still the biggest YRFI trend:
Rangers road games: 22 YRFI, 9 NRFI
YRFI rate: 71.0%
The Braves on the road also stand out:
Braves road games: 22 YRFI, 11 NRFI
YRFI rate: 66.7%
Final Takeaway
Through May 31, the 2026 MLB first-inning market has been nearly even overall, but YRFI has a slight lead at 449 to 438.
The bigger story is not just the overall split. It is how different the team trends are.
The Rangers, Rockies, and Astros have been some of the strongest YRFI environments so far. On the other side, the Padres, Cubs, and Orioles have been some of the strongest NRFI teams to track.
That is why NRFI and YRFI betting should not be treated as a blanket strategy. The overall numbers are close, but the edge comes from finding the right team, pitcher, ballpark, and matchup setup.
Through May 31, 2026, YRFI has the small league-wide edge, but the best opportunities are still coming from matchup-specific trends.